New 2023 data from the Office for National Statistics shows Wells, Shepton Mallet, Glastonbury and Street all recorded more deaths than births last year, echoing a national trend of falling fertility rates and ageing populations. Shepton Mallet was the only town locally where births still exceeded deaths – but only by a narrow margin.

Across all neighbourhoods in 2023:

• Shepton Mallet: 78 births, 62 deaths

• Wells: 41 births, 113 deaths

• Glastonbury: 68 births, 95 deaths

• Street: 39 births, 55 deaths

The figures reflect natural population change, meaning they exclude migration and only compare births and deaths.

Experts warn that similar patterns across England and Wales signal a long-term population shift. National fertility has now fallen to 1.44 children per woman – far below the 2.1 needed to sustain population size without inward migration.

Professor Karol Sikora, one of the UK's most senior oncologists, said the wider trend was driven by longstanding inequalities. "These scores reflect poverty… all this leads to illness, and that leads to earlier mortality," he said, warning that the situation is "bound to get worse without major policy changes".

Peter Matejic, chief analyst at the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, said the figures lay bare the impact of entrenched disadvantage. "Your economic situation affects your health at every stage," he said, describing the divide as "heartbreaking".

The 2023 data shows the sharpest imbalance in Wells, where deaths outnumbered births by nearly three to one. Every neighbourhood in Glastonbury and Street recorded natural population decline, while Shepton Mallet's small positive balance shows how tight the margins now are, even in areas that remain stable.

With most towns seeing more residents die than are born, experts say local populations are likely to become older and smaller unless young families continue to move into the area.